Lockheed Martin Secures a $15.5 Billion Windfall for Additional F-35s. Should Investors Consider the Stock for 2025?

The decision to invest in Lockheed Martin shares largely hinges on the performance of its F-35 sales.

Lockheed Martin's (LMT -0.17%) F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter jet is the gift that keeps on giving. Estimated to be worth $1 trillion in total lifetime value, the F-35 warplane remains easily Lockheed's most important product. And this was demonstrated once again just late last year, when the week before Christmas saw the Pentagon deliver three gifts to Lockheed Martin worth $15.5 billion in total.

Two presents for Lockheed Martin.

The first and by far biggest gift arrived Dec. 20, when the Pentagon's daily digest of contract awards showed Lockheed winning orders for 145 F-35 fighter jets worth $11.8 billion. Reported as a contract from the U.S. Navy, this order actually involves deliveries of F-35s for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force, as well as for U.S. allies Italy and Japan, like so:

  • For the Air Force: 48 conventional take-off and landing F-35As
  • For the Marine Corps: 16 short take-off and vertical landing (STOVL) F-35Bs, and five carrier-landing F-35Cs
  • For the Navy: 14 F-35C aircraft
  • For "non-U.S. Department of Defense program partners" that helped Lockheed develop the F-35 (in this case, Italy): 15 F-35As and one F-35B
  • For "Foreign Military Sales" customers who are not program partners on the F-35 (namely, Japan): 39 F-35As and seven F-35Bs 

The Department of Defense has indicated that all aircraft specified in this contract are expected to be delivered by June 2027. Consequently, the $11.8 billion associated with this agreement will be disbursed over the upcoming two and a half years. This translates to approximately $4.7 billion annually in extra revenue for Lockheed. However, Lockheed stands to gain even more than just this amount.

On December 23, the Pentagon granted Lockheed two additional contracts, funded through the Navy, totaling $3.4 billion and $335.7 million. These contracts are intended for logistics support, which encompasses ground maintenance, supply chain management, training services, as well as various engineering services and specialized testing and tooling equipment for the F-35 program. Both contracts are set to continue until the end of 2025, contributing an overall increase of $3.7 billion in expenditures.

In total, this amounts to $15.5 billion in new revenue from F-35 contracts for Lockheed, with approximately $8.4 billion expected to be realized in 2025.

F-35 close-up photo.

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Image credit: Getty Images.

What is the significance of this event for Lockheed Martin's stock?

So we're talking some objectively big numbers here. But let's put them in the context of the company we're talking about: Lockheed Martin, the world's largest pure-play defense contractor. How big of a deal are these contracts for a company of Lockheed's size?

Referring to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the additional $8.4 billion Lockheed will receive from these contracts in 2025 amounts to 30% of the $27.8 billion that Lockheed's Aeronautics division collected in 2023, the last full year for which we have data. It amounts to only 12.4% of the $67.6 billion in revenue that all of Lockheed Martin collected that year, granted. But even that seems like a big bump in revenue for a company that, according to most stock market analysts, is only growing earnings at about 3% annually over the next five years.

It is important to note that a significant portion of this extra revenue is expected to be concentrated in 2025, with the growth in F-35 revenue for 2026 and 2027 projected to be more modest. Nevertheless, this still represents nearly a 7% increase compared to the revenue in 2023, which is double what analysts had anticipated. This indicates that Wall Street's projections for Lockheed's upcoming growth could be overly cautious.

Is Lockheed Martin stock a good investment in 2025?

How fast Lockheed Martin stock ends up growing is a key fact investors need to consider when deciding whether to invest in the stock, which is not objectively cheap.

With a valuation of 17 times its trailing earnings and a slightly higher price based on free cash flow, Lockheed Martin must demonstrate earnings growth in the mid-double-digits for me to contemplate an investment. A long-term growth rate of 3% indicates that the stock is far from being a good deal. Even assuming a 7% growth rate, it likely remains overvalued.

If Lockheed can grow earnings in the 12% range, however, or ideally even a bit better than that, and paying a 2.7% dividend yield to boot, that is when things start to get a bit more interesting, and Lockheed stock starts looking more attractive as an investment.

As Lockheed Martin secures more lucrative F-35 contracts, the likelihood of that occurring increases.